Week 4 Review

Definitely one of the weirder weeks in fantasy football that I can remember. Nothing seemed to go how you thought it would.

This week’s average score was 96.1 while the median sat at 90.6. Another huge spread of scores as Randy went big time with a 145 and Pish really ate the mulch with a pathetic 64.

Total points for and against through 4 weeks

Bad Beats: The worst kind of beat you can have went to Hahn here as he scored the second highest and lost. Hahn has been crushing the league average for three weeks now and only has one win to show for it:

Brutal stuff for Hahn. Some consolation is that he sits third in points so he has a huge leg up on the rest of the losing record teams, so if he can just find a way to scratch out seven wins he should be in good shape.

Good Luck Winners: One of the luckiest wins we’ve seen so far this year goes to Johnson, who had a very predictable bad week with only 76 points. He had the good favor of playing Pish on his worst week. Johnson grabs his third win probably just because God is punishing me for some reason.

Expected Standings: If you score above the median (aka in the top 6) in a given week, you get an expected win. Here are the expected standings:

Player of the Week: I wanted to give this to myself, but that would be ridiculous after Randy posted the second highest score of the year. He did it with huge days from Rodgers, Godwin, and McCaffrey (those three combined for 86.7 points, more than 4 entire teams this week), and then double-digit contributions from four other players (Jones, Dissly, Cowboys, Henry). Only one real bad performer in MVS who somehow couldn’t even get his hands on 50 of Rodgers’ 411 yards. Good job, Randy — whoopdeedoo!

Dud of the Week: This was probably the dud of the century honestly. I am incredibly mad at this result. This is what happens when you start to trust someone, you know? They show their good side for the first few weeks and you really start to like them — you think they’re different than all the other guys in your past — but nope, they’re just another selfish deadbeat loser and you just look like a fool again. When will I ever find love?

Pish started with 18 points on Thursday Night and then couldn’t even find double digits from another non-defense player — not even his quarterback. His team didn’t score a single touchdown! Way to go idiot!

Here are your points scored by position breakdowns on the year. You can see Randy really making hay with his running backs there — 220 of his points coming from that position! Hahn has 90 points from his defenses, 48 more than the next best (Mitch has so little points from the defense that the graph can’t even fit the number in there). Johnson’s 3–1 record becomes even more astounding when you see he’s last in the league in quarterback points scored — it’s tough to win in this league without getting big numbers from the QB position — LET’S SEE IF HE CAN KEEP IT UP.

Tony and Hahn are very close to each other on that Y-Axis, but you see the ridiculous disparity in points against on the X. Lots of luck involved in fantasy football, lots of luck…

Nick gets a little overlooked because of Hahn’s ridiculous bad luck. He has had triple digits scored on him every single time and has himself scored 90 or more all four weeks — he should easily have a couple wins.

Splitting the line graphs into 2 graphs for aesthetic purposes. Here are the top 6 teams in the league:

And the bottom 6:

If you missed all my hub-bub yesterday, I wrote a Python script to simulate the rest of the season based on whatever standings I put in. The script runs 10,000 simulations (giving each game a 50/50 chance — so it’s not super realistic since you’d have to give say, Tony a more than 50% chance to beat Lee — but whatever it’s still useful) and then gives you the percentages of how often each team made the playoffs in those simulations.

Here are your current playoff chances:

…and chances to get one of the two bye weeks:

and here is how the playoff chance percentages have changed since the beginning of the season (everybody starts at 50%, obviously):

Here are your week four pie charts for every team, and at the bottom you can find a clickable link to go right to the PDF version so maybe you can see it a little better.

PDF Version

I’m out of time here, see ya later.

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