Week 4: Mitch (1–2) vs. Clint (2–1)
Vegas Mitch’s season is looking more like the Red Roof Inn than the Bellagio at this point. After a big, fantasy-pro’s bolstered preseason projection and ego, he’s sputtered out of the gate scoring below 90 points in each of the first three weeks. The league average currently sits at 103 points per week, Mitch has totals of 88, 79, and 88. Clint on the other hand has been rolling 7’s all year with scores of 122–120–154.
Here’s a histogram of our league scores so far, it shows that there have been 10 scores of 120+, and 3 of them belong to Clint:
Vegas Mitch’s Side:
Mitch definitely isn’t playing with a full deck here cause I’m only seeing one ace in these cards. Deshaun Watson is looking like a royal flush at home against the Panthers, but the rest of this lineup is looking like 5–2 offsuit.
Chubb is an awesome fantasy player no question about it, he played 99% of the Browns snaps the last two weeks, but the matchups just have not been in his favor. He gets one of the toughest flops you can get in Baltimore this weekend. Damien Williams is looking like he’s folding here and taking another game off, which forces Adrian Peterson and probably Corey Davis into Mitch’s lineup. You could do worse than those two, but there is almost no upside. Williams and Cooks could definitely hit runner-runner for a big score, but man this is not a team I have much confidence in.
Mitch’s team is looking as tame as the late Tanner Hanyo, ❤ RIP ❤.
Clint’s Side:
Losing the #1 overall pick for 60–90 weeks is tough to take, but it’s a little easier when you have Patricia Mahomes and the clutch handcuff, even if the handcuff is Wayne Gallbladder. Will these developments be enough to dethrone Clint as league’s top points scorer?
I’m going to say no. Regardless of how much worse Gallman is than Saquon, he’s going to come in and get 10+ carries and 4+ targets, and the Giants are in an awesome game environment against the Redskins. I might as well go full projection here so we can come back and see specifically how wrong I am.
Gallman: 14 carries, 62 yards, 4 catches, 22 yards, 1 TD
That’s a fantasy point total of 14.4 points. Of course there is no way to really project touchdowns, so I’ll take 3 points away for the 50/50 chance he doesn’t get it and project him for 11 in my spreadsheet.
Patrick Mahomes is becoming very boring as a fantasy player. Here’s a line graph and some descriptive statistics to prove it. I took last year and the start of this year (leaving out week 17 last year cause he only played half the game) and got his point totals with our league settings for all of those games:
Averaging 38.1 points is ridiculous. He has been held under 30 fantasy points just 4 times in those 18 games, meaning he’s gone over 30 points 78% of the time. He’s gone over 34 points 67% of the time. He’s the safest bet for points in the league and I’m sure it isn’t close. I really doubt there is another quarterback who has been anywhere close to as consistent as this dude, we should honestly just remove him from the player pool — all in favor?
We’ve said enough good things now. The rest of this squad is going to have consistency issues. Running backs are vastly more consistent in our league setup than receivers, so any time you’re using both flex spots on pass catchers you’re going to have some up and down outcomes. That said, Engram, Lockett, and Waller are all in pristine matchups and should have very good games.
If I hadn’t already wagered my entire reputation on Pish beating Johnson, Clint would be an easy lock-of-the-week pick.
You know this is my blog, I make the rules. I’m making TWO lock of the week picks this time!
Mitch can’t bring down the house, Clint rolls by a 50 piece. 130–80. Mitch is deader than dead, more dead than when the drink! the drink! for he was poooiiiisoned!!!
